One thing that I despise more is newscasters that utilize fear-mongering to boost ratings during a major storm approaching. So I am not going to be posting any more reminders, rebuttals, whatever on anyone who wants to keep posting these various “look at all of these times models said a storm was going to go to X but it really went to Y!” posts. I’m too damned tired to do it anymore.
Every single one of those posts are wrong, misleading, poorly written, or contrived. Every single one of them fail to respect the fact that in every one of their cases, the eventual path/landfall was entirely within the NHC’s forecast cone of uncertainty, and that in every one of these cases the NHC essentially showed the final path in their warnings at least 3 days – and in some cases, 5+ days – ahead of time, all of which are remarkable.
Are models 100% accurate? Of course not. Are they generally good for <= 2 days from initialization? Yes. Do storms “suddenly” turn,
The 0Z GFS and GFS-Legacy models, after nudging westward during the 18Z runs and bringing the storm closer to the coast, have now edged back to the east. We’re going to see these adjustments throughout the next day or so as models continue to refine. The HWRF 0Z run brings the storm ashore around Ormond/Daytona Beach, and the Euro 0Z run is strangely missing tonight. Either my site I follow hasn’t gotten it yet or its delayed, not sure.
We need to watch tomorrow for updates and
When preparing for a hurricane is to look at all the data. Look at all of the model runs and pay attention to trends. Are the model runs staying consistent. Also, keep in mind the wind field. For example, hurricane dorian now has hurricane force winds that extend 45 miles from the center. Only the most destructive winds are around the eye wall. From that point and out 45 miles from there, are hurricane force winds ranging from 75 mph plus.
Pay attention to where the center of the hurricane passes. If you live 70 miles away from where the center of the storm passes, you will get tropical-storm-force winds, which is just a typical rainy day for all of us Floridians. Also, since the storm will remain
I hope that this tutorial on how hurricanes work as well as how forecasting models work helps to educate you the next time you prepare for a hurricane.
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